According to ChinaIOL, in April 2019, the total output of the rotary compressor industry was 21.083 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.43%, and down 1.08% from the previous month. Total sales volume was 22.248 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, and down 2.32% from the previous month. This month's production and sales rate was 105.53%, and the inventory was 4.691 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.86% and a decrease of 19.9% from the previous month. In April, the production and sales of rotor compressors continued to increase year-on-year, with a slight decline in the chain and a sharp drop in inventories. The industry situation is still good.
In terms of production scheduling, compressor production was still high in May. The total output of 10 major compressor enterprises monitored was 20.95 million units, an increase of 8.9% over last year's actual production performance. Air-conditioning enterprises are relatively cautious in scheduling production, industry online monitoring data show that in May 2019, the output of household air-conditioning industry is about 17.48 million units, an increase of 2% over the same period last year. Because compared with the compressor, the performance of the air conditioner in April is more stable. It is understood that from April to the end of the May Day holiday, the growth rate of retail sales of air-conditioning online channels slowed down, and the growth rate of retail sales of offline channels warmed up slightly. Overall, the growth rate of retail sales was basically stable. As a result of the normalization of sales promotion since this year, the promotion season of May Day did not significantly promote the growth of air-conditioning retail sales. In addition, the continuous rains and clouds in April and May in the South affected the morale at the beginning. In addition, this year, in the context of falling raw material costs, the average price of air conditioning continues to decline. Early this year, Midea took the lead in vigorous price reduction promotions. In April, Gree began a new round of promotional activities. Suning, taking advantage of the "518 Air Conditioning Festival", will invest tens of thousands of 999-yuan 1P special machines (market average price is about 1600 yuan), coupled with huge inventory pressure in the air conditioning industry. It can be predicted that this year's air conditioning price war will be very fierce.
On May 10th, the United States officially announced an increase in tariffs from 10% to 25%. Air-conditioning compressors are also included in the levy list. For the rotary compressor, more than 90% of the world's production capacity comes from China, and the advantages of made in China and capacity scale cluster are obvious. It is difficult for the United States to find suitable alternative production capacity in other countries in the short term. At the same time, some leading companies have formed a global R&D and production layout, and since the beginning of the trade war in 2018, compressor manufacturers that export more to the United States have begun to be active. Overseas manufacturing systems should be deployed to avoid uncertain risks in the subsequent Sino-US trade war. In this regard, ChinaIOL maintains the previous judgment on the limited impact of trade wars on the industry based on the above reasons.